THE PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONALS
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Probability of Conditionals
We report two studies investigating how naïve reasoners evaluate the probability that a conditional assertion is true, and the conditional probability that the consequent of the conditional is true given that the antecedent is true. The mental model theory predicts that individuals should evaluate the probability of a conditional on the basis of the mental models representing the conditional, a...
متن کاملThe Probability of Iterated Conditionals
Iterated conditionals of the form If p, then if q, r are an important topic in philosophical logic. In recent years, psychologists have gained much knowledge about how people understand simple conditionals, but there are virtually no published psychological studies of iterated conditionals. This paper presents experimental evidence from a study comparing the iterated form, If p, then if q, r wi...
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The two main psychological theories of the ordinary conditional were designed to account for inferences made from assumptions, but few premises in everyday life can be simply assumed true. Useful premises usually have a probability that is less than certainty. But what is the probability of the ordinary conditional and how is it determined? We argue that people use a two stage Ramsey test that ...
متن کاملVagueness, conditionals and probability
This paper explores the interaction of well-motivated (if controversial) principles governing the probability conditionals, with accounts of what it is for a sentence to be indefinite. The conclusion can be played in a variety of ways. It could be regarded as a new reason to be suspicious of the intuitive data about the probability of conditionals; or, holding fixed the data, it could be used t...
متن کاملConditionals, Probability, and Belief Revision (preliminary Version) Conditionals, Probability, and Belief Revision (preliminary Version)*
A famous result obtained in the mid-seventies by David Lewis shows that a straightforward interpretation of probabilities of conditionals as conditional probabilities runs into serious trouble. In this paper we try to circumvent this trouble by defining extensions of probability functions, called conditional probability functions. We further defend the position that rational partial beliefs (ab...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: PSYCHOLOGIA
سال: 2004
ISSN: 0033-2852,1347-5916
DOI: 10.2117/psysoc.2004.207